Fantasy basketball: André Snellings’ Ultimate Draft Board

What does your perfect fantasy basketball draft look like?

This is a question you should consider before your draft begins, when you’re still in the planning stages.

Even now, after all these years of playing fantasy sports, I still do this before most big drafts — I look at where I’m picking in the draft and decide who, among those likely to be there, I’ll take first. And then I look at where my next picks are and compare that to the player rankings, to see who I want most among players in the right range for me to take.

Most of the people in your leagues aren’t going to go into the draft with much of a plan, and just hope for the best. So, if you step into the draft with an idea about what the talent looks like at different parts of the draft, it will give you a leg up on the competition right from the opening tip.

The best way to gauge what your team might look like, in my experience, is to do mock draft(s) before my real drafts to get a feel for what players should be available. Will my sleeper picks be there, or does everyone know about them so they go earlier than expected?

Often, there are really good players ranked lower than you expect that might be available later than you think. Having an idea of how this tends to shake out before you enter your draft can be very valuable for maximizing your squad.

In this article, I highlight players I would like to draft at different locations within the draft. In the early rounds, draft slot makes a huge difference in what players might be available, so I point out players of interest in different parts of the round. In the middle and later rounds, I highlight groups of players that I like that should be available in that range.

To determine likelihood of availability, I utilize average draft pick (ADP) data to offer insight on the type of value that might be available throughout your own drafts.

The foundation

Round 1: The best at the top

• If I have the first pick in a points league, I’m taking Nikola Jokic (1.4 ADP) immediately. If I have the first pick in a category league, I’m taking Victor Wembanyama (3.5 ADP) just as quickly. And if I have the second pick, in either format, I’m taking whichever of the two isn’t taken first. Jokic has been the top fantasy points producer for the past five seasons, and Wembanyama is the only player that has a legitimate chance to overtake him.

• If I’m picking in the middle of the round, in a points league I’m aiming at either Giannis Antetokounmpo (4.6 ADP) or Anthony Edwards (6.1 ADP). Antetokounmpo will be a nightly triple-double threat on this Bucks team, as he takes on an even larger creation role in the post-Damian Lillard era for a squad full of finishers. His only weakness, free throw shooting, would cause Antetokounmpo to slide toward the end of the first round in category leagues. Edwards, on the other hand, is equally valuable in both formats. His volume makes him the top-ranked wing in points leagues, but his increase to the top of the league in 3-point volume solidifies his value in category leagues as well.

• At the end of the first round, my preference would be either Cade Cunningham (8.9 ADP) or Anthony Davis (8.8 ADP). Cunningham blossomed last season, his fourth in the NBA, in the first time he was healthy enough to play 70 games. He joined the league leaders in both points and assists and was a nightly triple-double threat, and having just turned 24 years old in September he still has clearly achievable upside to get even better.

  Davis finished sixth in the league in total fantasy points last season but only played 51 games, the fourth time in the past five seasons he has played 56 or fewer games. This is, of course, what makes Davis a risky pick in the first round. But on the positive side, Davis has higher per-game production potential this season, as the primary option on the Mavericks, than he had with the Lakers prior to the trade. In his first game with the Mavericks after the trade, Davis was well on his way to a dominant triple-double before injury felled him.

  With Kyrie Irving sidelined for at least half the season, Davis will be the focal point at both ends of the court on an otherwise balanced Mavericks squad that will rely on his production. Davis played a career-best 76 games in 2023-24, and if he can approach that number this season he has top-5 overall fantasy production potential in both points and categories formats.

Round 2

• Based on ADP, the best two value picks I’d target early in the second round would be Trae Young (12.2 ADP) or Karl-Anthony Towns (12.5 ADP). Young projects to more fantasy points as well as the higher rank in category leagues, likely to lead the league in assists again on a Hawks team that has added more finishers this offseason. But I also really like Towns here, as a high-volume/high-efficiency big-man scorer with dual-position eligibility in a league where there aren’t many ultra-elite power forward options.

• Still, the best value in Round 2, regardless of where you’re picking, could be James Harden (19.4 ADP). Harden returned the fourth-most fantasy points in the league last season, trailing only Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Antetokounmpo. He projects to first-round value in category leagues and borderline first-round value in points leagues, making him a strong second-round pick in either format. Harden also has dual-position eligibility, adding to his value in a league otherwise chock-full of quality point guard-eligible players.

Late Round 2/Early Round 3: Brunson and Mitchell

• Jalen Brunson (20.3 ADP) has been a high-volume producer for the Knicks for the past few years under Tom Thibodeaux, but this season he’ll be playing for Mike Brown. Brown has a history of leading strong offenses, including in 2022-23 when Brown’s Kings led the NBA in team offensive rating. Brunson could be even better this season than he has been, providing good value late in the second round or early in the third.

• Another player to look for in this range is Donovan Mitchell (21.2 ADP). Mitchell’s volume dropped last season, in large part because the Cavaliers were so successful (average scoring margin +9.5 PPG) that each of their starters played fewer minutes because they weren’t needed. Mitchell’s 31.4 MPG were a career low. But if the Cavaliers, for any reason, don’t enjoy the same level of success this season as last, and Mitchell’s minutes return closer to his career 33.8 MPG, his production would likewise increase and he could return value higher than his draft position.

Round 3: Brown and Giddey

• Jaylen Brown (26.3 ADP) enters this season as the unquestioned No. 1 option for the Celtics this season. Over the past two seasons, Brown’s scoring average increased from 22.2 PPG next to Tatum to 26.8 PPG in the games Tatum missed. If he’s physically up to carrying the load, Brown could be in for a big season.

• Josh Giddey (30.9 ADP) had never been a player one would target this early in fantasy hoops drafts, but he broke out in a major way last season once the Bulls sent Zach LaVine to Sacramento and focused on building around Giddey and Coby White. In the last 19 games he played, starting Feb. 20, Giddey averaged 21.2 PPG, 10.7 RPG and 9.3 APG. He has incredible upside this season.

Round 4: Two young wings

• Cooper Flagg (32.8 ADP) is the first rookie mentioned here, and he has some of the biggest name hype in fantasy hoops drafts based on his exploits in college. But Flagg, to my eye, is ready for the big time. In the NBA summer league in Las Vegas, he showed he had both the physicality and the game to thrive in the NBA from Day 1. With Kyrie Irving sidelined for the first half of the season, Flagg should step into a large offensive role for the Mavericks while playing off Anthony Davis.

• Amen Thompson (36.7 ADP) was one of the highest potential players in the 2023 NBA draft, and after an injury-filled rookie season he exploded onto the scene when he got starting minutes as a sophomore. The Rockets traded away wings Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks for Kevin Durant this offseason, then lost point guard Fred VanVleet to injury. Thompson will be asked to play major minutes and wear a lot of hats on this Rockets team, and at still only 22 years old he could be in for another major leap in Year 3.

Middle rounds (Rounds 5-8)

• Josh Hart (45.8 ADP) has an extremely fantasy-friendly, across-the-board stat-filling game that tends to outproduce his reputation in both points and categories leagues. Last season, Hart returned the 19th-most fantasy points on the season. He is good value in the middle rounds of a fantasy hoops draft.

• Derrick White (47.7 ADP) returned the 33rd most fantasy points last season and looks poised for a larger role this season with Jayson Tatum sidelined. White is a solid shooter and scorer, but he is another that gives positive contributions across the board, including strong 3-pointers, steals and even solid blocked shots for a guard. For that reason, he is even more valuable in category leagues (preseason rank 19th) than points.

• Jalen Green (56.4 ADP) produced the 44th-most fantasy points last season as the somewhat inconsistent leading scorer for the Rockets. Green was the centerpiece in the trade for Durant this offseason, and should be in a heavy-volume but secondary role behind Devin Booker for the Suns this season. This is a better situation for Green than what he enjoyed with the Rockets, because defenses will be keying on Booker but Green should still get as much or more volume in Phoenix than what he got in Houston. Green is still only 23 years old, and he has played all 82 games in two straight seasons, so he has both upside and a reputation for durability.

• Walker Kessler (72.5 ADP) has nightly double-double potential and should be among the league leaders in blocked shots. That can be solid for a starting center in points leagues, but the shot-blocking is very valuable in category leagues and has him ranked 54th in the preseason category rankings.

• Deni Avdija (74.6 ADP) showed serious signs of breaking out last season, his first with the Trail Blazers, particularly in the second half of the season. After the All-Star break, Avdija averaged 23.3 PPG, 9.7 RPG and 5.2 APG. The Trail Blazers have Avdija as their centerpiece this season, and if he approaches those values he would dramatically outplay his draft slot.

Late rounds (Round 9 and beyond)

• Kevin Porter Jr. (86.7 ADP) averaged 19.2 PPG, 5.7 APG and 5.3 RPG as the full-time starter for the Rockets in 2022-23. This season, with Damian Lillard gone, Porter could get that type of run for the Bucks. Porter is still only 25 years old, and could be in for the best season of his career playing off Antetokounmpo.

• Alex Sarr (99.4 ADP) projects as a nightly double-double threat whose scoring as a sophomore could push into the upper-teens for the Wizards. But his value is even higher in category leagues, where he has the upside to average 4+ combined blocks, 3-pointers and steals per game from the center slot.

• Shaedon Sharpe (107.9 ADP) was drafted into the NBA as a player with limitless potential, and he has improved each season. The Trail Blazers dealt leading scorer Anfernee Simons in the offseason, opening up the opportunity for Sharpe to blossom into a 20+ PPG scorer in his fourth season. Still only 22 years old, Sharpe continues to be one of the bigger upside plays in the league.

• Andrew Nembhard (109.3 ADP) and Bennedict Mathurin (120.2 ADP) are two of the leading candidates to step into the increased opportunities left by the absence of Tyrese Haliburton. Mathurin has bounced back and forth between starting and sixth-man roles, but he has already shown 20 PPG potential with upside. Nembhard has produced solid numbers while starting next to Haliburton, but he also had a legendary playoff run with Haliburton injured two seasons ago that suggests he could have dramatically higher upside as the general of the team.

• Kyrie Irving (120.5 ADP) and Dejounte Murray (132.2 ADP) would both be stash candidates. Both are coming off major surgery and are currently expected back sometime in the New Year. It is always risky to pick players in these situations, and even after they return they are likely to have minutes restrictions as they ramp up to speed. But if you have drafted a team strong enough to withstand their absence, the upside is that you could get high-round value joining your team in time for the stretch run and fantasy playoffs.

• Reed Sheppard (139.3 ADP) had the game to be one of the bigger rookie impacts of the 2024 draft class, but the depth of the Rockets on the perimeter relegated him to few minutes and stints in the G League. The Rockets traded two wings for Durant, who is likely to play more of a 3-4 hybrid, and their starting point guard Fred VanVleet is out for the season. Sheppard could be in-line for starting minutes this season, and if so he has major upside. In that scenario, I’d rank him conservatively as a top-75 producer in both points and categories formats.