Fifty-nine players will be drafted into the NBA over the course of Wednesday and Thursday’s annual NBA Draft. The varying levels of confidence I have in their future successes ranges anywhere between he’s probably a future Hall of Famer to, well, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
There is a lot of certainty, for instance, that Cooper Flagg will be very good. (He will be the No. 1 pick come Wednesday, so he should be.) But even in the subset of other lottery prospects, there is a wide potential of professional outcomes ranging from future All-Stars to outright busts.
Who will fall into which category is impossible to predict, of course, and if I had a crystal ball I’d be retired off that intelligence instead of blogging about it. But I’ve picked four who stand out from this class — all of whom are currently projected to be first-round picks — whose NBA outcomes seem particularly volatile. The four below could hit in a big way and ascend to stardom, but unlike their colleagues, their potential to bust is dramatically higher than others in the same range.
Cooper Flagg set to be top pick in 2025 NBA Draft: What to know before Mavericks select Duke freshman at No. 1
David Cobb
Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma
Fears had the eighth-highest usage rate in 2024-25 among major conference Division I players as an 18-year-old freshman at the University of Oklahoma after reclassifying, showcasing elite skill for someone at such a young age. That the Sooners won 20 games and pushed into the NCAA Tournament with him leading the way is a testament to his potential.
He’s an exceptional ball-handler who can create downhill as an attacker and was the driving force behind the most efficient offensive attack at OU in nine years. But his 28.4% hit rate on 3-pointers and just-OK finishing ability around the basket leaves one wondering what exactly his path to stardom will be in the NBA if he doesn’t add value as a shooter or finisher. The likely answer is that he needs to significantly improve in one or both of those areas to reach that potential.
Egor Demin, BYU
BYU had a top-10 offensive attack last season led by Demin, who finished with the No. 2 assist rate among Big 12 players in league play at a staggering 36.6%. That exemplifies where his value lies in his future: as a preternatural passer who is also gifted with a 6-foot-9 frame.
The big question is, similar to Fears, where else he can help. His defense is a question mark — BYU played a lot of zone, and his fundamentals on that end are still green, as I’ve seen him bouncing in his stance at times and frequently out of position — and his shooting (27.3% on 3-pointers) was equally lackluster. If his shot comes around he could bounce into stardom. But how many players have we said that about with stellar traits over the years who didn’t pan out?
Noa Essengue, France
The buzziest name in NBA circles right now is Essengue, who left his team in Germany during its playoff run to come to the U.S. for Wednesday’s draft. He’s expected to be taken in the lottery, and there is behind-the-scenes steam for him in the top 10 because of his frame, fluid movement and projectable defensive role. But he’s still a very raw prospect and very young at just 18 who is going to be on a developmental track as he grows into his frame and becomes more consistent as a shooter. I’m a believer in the talent, but for a nearly-surefire top-10 there are caution signs to consider.
Will Riley, Illinois
Another prospect in this class who reclassified to play up, Riley is a wiry wing who wowed with his scoring flashes in one season at Illinois — which included scoring outbursts of 31, 27, 24 and 22 point games as the team’s third-leading scorer. But while the wiry part implies youth and growth potential it also is reflected in growth opportunity, as he rated in the 31st percentile on short jumpers and occasionally struggled against physical defenders.
He’s not ready to be an impactful NBA player next season and may need to find the right team and the right program willing to invest in ensuring he has the right resources and tools to become the dynamic scoring wing he shows potential of becoming.
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