2025 NBA Draft: Why these five high first-round picks are most likely to be traded by Wednesday night

I can tell you with relative certainty that the Dallas Mavericks will select Cooper Flagg No. 1 overall in Wednesday’s 2025 NBA Draft. He’s been a preordained top choice for years now, and the Mavericks, still smarting from the public relations Hindenburg that was the Luka Dončić trade, cannot afford to pass up the chance to land such an obvious young star. Reports even indicated one day after the lottery that Mavericks owner Patrick Dumont had decided that the pick wouldn’t be available for trade. So we know what’s happening at No. 1.

After that? There’s little we can say comfortably. Dylan Harper will almost certainly be the No. 2 overall pick, and the San Antonio Spurs will probably be the team picking him, but there will be considerable trade interest, and if someone wants to bowl them over, well, the Spurs would at least listen. After that? It’s pandemonium, and that isn’t just a commentary on which players will get selected, but also, who will be taking them.

There is going to be plenty of trading within this draft. That’s what happens when perhaps the most stunning lottery result in NBA history vaults three win-now teams to the top of the board and leaves the league’s perpetual losers beneath them. Several lottery picks have already been traded, either this offseason or from their original teams in the past, so it’s reasonable to assume that the owners of those picks aren’t as committed to them as their original owners would have been.

So we know No. 1 isn’t moving and No. 2 likely won’t. But after that, which picks are likeliest to move? Where are we going to get the most action on Wednesday? Let’s limit our search to the top half of the first round. Here are five picks in that range that stand out as plausible trade chips.

While there is no consensus No. 3 prospect in this draft, the player most frequently placed there is Ace Bailey. The problem? He is seemingly doing everything in his power to avoid the team picking at No. 3, the Philadelphia 76ers, and he has ducked the No. 4 Charlotte Hornets and No. 5 Utah Jazz. There have been rumblings that his preferred destination could be Washington at No. 6, New Orleans at No. 7 and Brooklyn at No. 8. All three teams appear very interested in landing him. However, they can’t rely on him sliding, as ESPN’s Jonathan Givony reported that either Charlotte or Utah could consider just taking Bailey themselves and figuring it out later.

Therefore, if one of those teams wants Bailey, they probably have to move up. Doing so with Charlotte seems unlikely, as the Hornets have reportedly been very interested in VJ Edgecombe and wouldn’t want to risk losing him by sliding a few slots. Making any sort of trade with Utah is like pulling teeth. Danny Ainge only makes trades he thinks he’s won handily. So that leaves the 76ers at No. 3, probably the only slot in which Bailey can be guaranteed.

Daryl Morey never drafts in the lottery anyway, and he’s one of the most creative roster-builders in basketball. In all likelihood, he’d be comfortable moving backward for the right price, and all three Bailey suitors have things he might want. The Wizards have a ton of youth and control of their own picks. The Pelicans have useful and affordable role players, with star defender Herb Jones standing out as a feasible target. The Nets have cap space. Nearly endless cap space. If they wanted to take Paul George’s contract off of Philadelphia’s hands to swap picks, they could.

Morey will do just about anything for the right price, and if he has three bidders for the same pick, he should be able to drum up a good price. Depending on how he feels about Bailey and Edgecombe, that might make sense anyway. The 76ers aren’t a traditional team picking at the top of the draft. If they’re healthy, they can win right now. They shouldn’t give up the pick entirely, as Joel Embiid’s health is forcing them to cultivate youth so they can still eventually win on Tyrese Maxey’s timeline, but in this draft, the dip from No. 3 to No. 8 just isn’t that big.

The 76ers might move down. The Raptors could move, well, anywhere. You could justify paying assets to move up. Scottie Barnes is the only player on this roster with All-Star upside. If they think someone in the top-five has such potential, it’s worth exploring a move to get him. They could also move down. They’re already above the luxury tax line for next season with their current roster, and even if they don’t have superstars, they have a lot of starting-caliber NBA players. Minutes here are scarce, so value is paramount.

Or, frankly, they could trade out of the first round entirely. They explored a Kevin Durant trade. Plenty of reporting has suggested that they want to make a major trade this offseason, and again, given the lack of star-level upside on this roster, that makes a lot of sense. There isn’t an obvious target for such a trade right now, but Desmond Bane wasn’t an obvious trade candidate this summer either. The Magic offered four first-round picks so he got traded.

If Toronto wants a star badly enough, they’re probably asking teams that have one if the No. 9 pick along with several future selections is enough to pry him loose. How committed is Boston to keeping Jaylen Brown in light of its second-apron issues? Does Lauri Markkanen appeal to Toronto at all? Could a second core Grizzlies player move? I don’t know the answer to these questions. Toronto is probably trying to find out.

To be fair, James Jones isn’t the general manager anymore. Phoenix may no longer be quite as averse to drafting as it once was. But Mat Ishbia is still the owner, and he’s been dogmatic in his commitment to trying to win in the present. The Suns probably should use this pick — which they acquired in Sunday’s Kevin Durant trade with the Rockets — on the highest-upside prospect they can. Above all else, they need upside. Really, they need a miracle to bail Ishbia out of this disaster.

But, with Ishbia being Ishbia, we have to acknowledge the potential and perhaps likelihood that he tries to trade this pick for established talent. One of the many lingering questions after the Kevin Durant trade is how the Suns plan to find a starting center. They were expected to land a center in the Durant trade but failed to do so. Therefore, their best bet is probably trading for a veteran.

Keep an eye on Duke center Khaman Maluach in this case. Several of the teams in his range, including Utah at No. 5 (Walker Kessler) and Brooklyn at No. 8 (Nic Claxton) have high-level starting centers that have been in trade rumors this offseason. If either takes Maluach, don’t be surprised if they try to trade their incumbent to Phoenix. Dallas extended Daniel Gafford on Monday, but notably, did so at a number that means he is still legally tradable. The Mavericks still have a front court logjam, so a Gafford trade still makes some sense. Gafford alone probably doesn’t net No. 10, but perhaps he could be in a package that does it.

This pick should be sacred to Phoenix. All rebuilding assets should be. The Suns are a mess. But, to be frank, an owner capable of digging himself this sort of hole is also an owner capable of digging a deeper one. Never rule out a hasty Ishbia trade.

4. San Antonio Spurs, No. 14

Last year, the Spurs entered draft night with two lottery picks. They used the first, No. 4, on Stephon Castle. The second, Rob Dillingham, was traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves for a first-round pick and a lightly-protected first-round swap deep into the future. The trade made perfect sense for both teams. San Antonio didn’t want to invest significant minutes into two rookies who play the same position. Minnesota, with all of its present picks going to Utah in the Rudy Gobert deal, had no other way to land a high-upside yet affordable long-term Mike Conley replacement.

Well, fast forward to 2025. Once again, the Spurs have two first-round picks. Harper will presumably be the first, but they’re trying to win now. They won’t have minutes available to give to a rookie if they’re going to continue seeking veteran upgrades. It makes no sense to draft a second one.

However, there are plenty of teams in a similar position to Minnesota a year ago that might be willing to pay a steep asset price to get into the back end of this year’s lottery. Think of Denver and Milwaukee. Both are very limited in what they can do around their MVPs, Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo. They don’t have the assets to add meaningful veteran help, and their cap sheets are so precarious that they couldn’t afford to pay them anyway. But a high-upside rookie with four years of cost-control? That would mean quite a bit to teams like that, and who cares where they are in 2031 or 2032? They have MVP-caliber players right now. It might be 50 years before Denver gets another Jokić. If Antetokounmpo agrees to remain with this pathetic Milwaukee roster, the Bucks owe it to him to be aggressive and actually take some risks. There will be other teams with similar possible interest, but the Nuggets and Bucks make the most sense.

San Antonio spent part of its Minnesota bounty in the De’Aaron Fox trade at the deadline, and that should further motivate a move like this. They need to stock back up for their next star trade, and if their target in that move happens to be Antetokounmpo himself? Then it makes sense to try to steal Milwaukee picks now to ransom back to the Bucks later.

The Spurs don’t have minutes for a rookie. The Thunder literally don’t have roster spots. All 15 of their standard, NBA roster slots are currently spoken for, assuming they plan to retain Jaylin Williams and Ajay Mitchell in some fashion. Now, the champs do have some players they might be open to dumping. Ousmane Dieng didn’t do much for them this season, and neither did Dillon Jones. Maybe they create roster spots by giving them away. But the Thunder have three picks in this draft, No. 15, No. 24 and No. 44. They should be trying to consolidate.

Ideally, that would mean moving up and getting their hands on a premium prospect. They reportedly hope to do just that. But if they can’t, they, like the Spurs, are a candidate to turn a present pick into future value. The premise of Oklahoma City’s dynasty ambitions is based on having an infinite cycle of future draft picks to replace role players as they get expensive. It never hurts to throw more picks onto the pile. The Thunder are the champions, and they got there with one of the youngest title-winning rosters in NBA history. They really don’t need to make a pick this year. They should only do so if they love the player.