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Eric Karabell
Many statistical surprises will occur during the upcoming NBA season, and fantasy managers should be prepared for all the angles for their leagues, regardless of format.
Here are potential surprises for each team for fantasy purposes. Will some/most/few of these things occur?
Don’t be surprised if …
Atlanta Hawks PF Jalen Johnson is a top-10 roto player
Johnson might have gotten to that level last season if not for the shoulder injury that shut him down in January. Johnson can be a 20/10 player with more than a block, steal and 3-pointer per game. Who does that? Not many players. If he gets hurt again, we must reevaluate.
Boston Celtics SF/SG Jaylen Brown averages 30 PPG
Brown averaged 26.6 PPG several seasons ago, but now that PF/SF Jayson Tatum is out for much of the season, he needs to score more. SG/PG Derrick White might be the better value coming two rounds later, but Brown will see a career-best in shots. Tatum (Achilles) makes his season debut in March. Stash him if you have an injured list slot, but not for the bench in redraft formats.
Brooklyn Nets PG Egor Demin averages 14 PPG and seven APG
Demin, 19, played a season for BYU, and while he didn’t shoot particularly well or score as much as many expected, he is a gifted passer and, at 6-foot-9, he rebounds well. There will be triple-doubles in his future. The Nets have a few scorers. Demin, despite his rookie status, will end up on fantasy rosters this season. He might be the No. 2 rookie for fantasy, too.
Charlotte Hornets PG LaMelo Ball maddens fantasy managers for the fourth consecutive season
The numbers are always terrific, except for one: Ball has performed in only 105 games over the past three seasons. He had offseason surgery on his wrist and ankle. Perhaps that fixes everything, but at least Joel Embiid has played in 60-plus games four times. Ball did it once. The Hornets are bad, which means there is a likelihood of them sitting good players after the All-Star break to tank for the draft, too.
Chicago Bulls C Nikola Vucevic is a top-10 roto/categories player, yet again
Vucevic averages 18 and 10 every season with 3-pointers and solid shooting, and finally his ADP reflects his value — to a point. Going in the top 30 might be the highest ADP for him in a while. Perhaps that is a fair tradeoff for someone about to turn 35, but he finished last season No. 8 on the Player Rater. Ignore his defense and love the fantasy numbers.
Cleveland Cavaliers PF/C Evan Mobley finally averages 20 and 10
Yes, we should predict this every season until he does it. He’s only 24 and still improving. Moving on.
Dallas Mavericks SF/PF Cooper Flagg scores the most fantasy points on the team
This one is cheating a bit, because nobody thinks Flagg will produce bigger numbers than C/PF Anthony Davis. He should play more, though. Davis has reached 65 games in one of the past seven seasons, and there is no reason to push him with fellow bigs Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II on the roster. Investing in Davis can be perilous for the impatient. Wonderful player, but brittle. Flagg averages 17 and 7, shoots well, and there is little reason to think he can’t suit up at least 75 times.
Denver Nuggets SF/PF Cameron Johnson averages three 3-pointers
Johnson comes over in trade for Michael Porter Jr., and while he can’t possibly maintain the shooting volume he did in Brooklyn, the shots he sees should be better thanks to the passing skills of C Nikola Jokic. Johnson seems a bit too downgraded in drafts. He can still average 18 PPG.
Detroit Pistons SF/PF Ausar Thompson is a bit overvalued in drafts
Amen Thompson, the twin brother who plays for the Houston Rockets, is the one you covet in fantasy. He scores and boards, with ample steals and blocks. The one on Detroit also goes in the top 100 of ADP, and he too should pile on the steals, but he isn’t much of a scorer or shooter. Neither twin has much of an outside shot, either.
Golden State Warriors SF/SG/PF Jimmy Butler III falls short of top-50 fantasy status
Butler finished last season 77th on the Player Rater, but this isn’t stopping him from being a top-50 pick in ESPN ADP. OK, so what might change for the positive? Well, Butler shouldn’t be traded this season, so that’s good, but he also hasn’t suited up for more than 65 games since the 2016-17 campaign. It’s about the playoffs for Butler. His numbers went up a bit with the Warriors last season, but not close to 20 PPG. Do not reach in drafts.
Houston Rockets C Alperen Sengun averages a career best seven APG
That’s a lot for a 7-footer who hasn’t topped five APG before, but PG Fred VanVleet (knee) is done for the season, there really isn’t a pure point guard available and the offense was already going through the team’s center anyway. Sacramento Kings C Domantas Sabonis averaged seven APG in two seasons before last year. Sengun has the skills to do so and flirt with being a top-10 roto player as well. He was No. 19 last season.
Indiana Pacers PG/SG Andrew Nembhard averages 16 PPG and 7.5 APG
That would make Nembhard, a borderline top-100 selection in current ADP, a potential top-50 option. PG/SG Tyrese Haliburton is out for the year, and it is hard to see PG T.J. McConnell (hamstring), currently injured, seeing his minutes rise so much. Nembhard runs this team for this season and performs well.
LA Clippers PG/SG James Harden finishes as the No. 3 fantasy option yet again!
Harden, 36, surprised many a fantasy manager with his return to excellent statistical performance last season, when only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic topped him on the Player Rater. Why would this season be different? OK, so Harden is older than most, but this is his offense again, and he shouldn’t fall to the middle of Round 2 in drafts. These fine numbers are repeatable.
Los Angeles Lakers PG Luka Doncic leads the NBA in scoring at 31.5 PPG
What?! Nothing against SGA and Jokic, but it is only natural to expect Doncic, in better shape and more comfortable in this offense, to perform better than he did for the Lakers last season. And he was great for the Lakers. SF/PF LeBron James will have another outstanding season, but Doncic will take over the offense and earn his second scoring title. He might even finish as fantasy’s No. 1 player.
Memphis Grizzlies PG/SG Scotty Pippen Jr. becomes a top-100 fantasy option
Pippen started 21 games for last season’s Grizzlies, averaging 14.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG and 5.7 APG, with steals, 3-pointers and strong shooting in them. There might not be major statistical upside for him, but PG Ja Morant (ankle) is always hurt, and Pippen is a better passer than newcomer PG Ty Jerome. Pippen is a solid late-round sleeper, and not only in deep formats.
Miami Heat C Kel’el Ware averages 14 PPG and 10.5 RPG
Ware put up solid numbers in the second half of last season when he joined the starting lineup, shifting C/PF Bam Adebayo to power forward. Now, Ware gets a nice spike in minutes. This is going to be a top-100 player, but he isn’t being drafted as one.
Milwaukee Bucks C Myles Turner averages career highs of 18.2 PPG and 8.2 RPG
Turner, the longtime Pacer who switched allegiances, has been a fantasy fixture in roto formats for the blocked shots, and we like centers who hit 3-pointers and shoot well. We also like centers who rebound more than 6.5 times per game. That should happen now with the Bucks, who have a bit of a stripped-down roster.
Minnesota Timberwolves C/PF Naz Reid scores more fantasy points than C Rudy Gobert
This nearly occurred last season, but Gobert held on with an unlikely, massive performance in April (19.4 PPG, 13.6 RPG). Otherwise, Reid was the better player in points formats, and since he is younger, more versatile and has the new contract, we should expect more minutes and production, too. Reid can rebound more than he has in the past. He averaged 18.1 PPG and 9.7 RPG as the starting center. This could be the year Gobert falls shy of 10 RPG.
New Orleans Pelicans SF/SG Trey Murphy III averages a team-leading 23.5 PPG
Murphy blossomed into a star last season, averaging 21.2 PPG, but there is clearly upside for more. He averaged 25.1 PPG during 13 January games. Murphy hasn’t been the most durable option, but he looks like A.C. Green (look him up) compared with overrated PF Zion Williamson when it comes to durability. It’s an odd team, with SG/PG Jordan Poole running “point,” but Murphy should be the signature player.
New York Knicks SF/SG Josh Hart is a draft day bust
Many of us are big Hart fans, but there is no way new Knicks coach Mike Brown is playing him 37.6 MPG. Hart led the league in the category last season with Tom Thibodeau relying so much on his starters. Hart already had finger surgery this summer, and his back hurts. Expect something like his 2023-24 numbers, which are fine and valuable, considering his proclivity for rebounding at a position where few do that, but not top-50 worthy.
Oklahoma City Thunder C/PF Chet Holmgren is a top-20 fantasy option
Holmgren seems to be a bargain pick in the fourth round of ESPN ADP, and his third NBA season really should deliver his best numbers yet. Perhaps potential investors are concerned about durability after Holmgren missed 50 games last season with a broken hip and lost his rookie season to a broken foot. He also played in all 82 games in 2023-24. There could be a run at 20 and 10 here, with myriad blocks and a growing number of 3-pointers. Take Holmgren over injured Grizzlies C/PF Jaren Jackson Jr. (toe).
Orlando Magic SG/SF Desmond Bane scores the most fantasy points on the team
This is bold, but Bane comes from Memphis and should see excellent usage, contributing points, rebounds, assists, steals, 3-pointers and solid shooting while taking away some numbers from others. This is nothing against new teammates PF/SF Paolo Banchero and SF/PF Franz Wagner, but it’s not as if they are big rebounders or 3-point shooters. Bane is the draft day bargain here.
Philadelphia 76ers C Joel Embiid plays in 62 games
You know what, let’s be optimistic that this mountain of unpredictability can suit up enough to satiate fantasy managers and average 28 PPG, 10 RPG and 1.5 BPG. Embiid (knee) isn’t promising anyone anything, but he did perform in 66 and 68 games in the two seasons prior to 2023-24, so there is more of a track record for qualifying for league awards than there is for missing more than 62 games again. Take the chance if he somehow slips into the fifth round.
Phoenix Suns C Mark Williams plays in 65 games
That prediction seems like enough to pique the interest of potential investors, because production has rarely been an issue for this 7-footer. Williams averaged 15.3 PPG and 10.2 RPG for last season’s Hornets over 44 games, and they couldn’t wait to move him elsewhere. A trade to the Lakers failed. Williams is also an attractive fantasy option because he is a center who hits his free throws; he made more than 80% last season. The Suns can feature him.
Portland Trail Blazers C Donovan Clingan averages a double-double
It took Clingan a while to shed the look of a raw rookie last season, but then he delivered 10.3 PPG, 11.7 RPG and 1.7 BPG in seven April contests. Can we expect that production over six months? Perhaps not, but Clingan is a legit 7-2, a huge body and a franchise building block. It wouldn’t take much to make him a top-100 overall player.
Sacramento Kings PG Dennis Schroder averages six APG
This is more for deeper roto formats because Schroder might not do much else for a fantasy roster, but he always seems to end up with plenty of assists. The Kings started SG/PG/SF Malik Monk 45 times last season, and he averaged 5.6 APG, but Schroder is better suited to run an offense, and Monk is a sixth-man type. Schroder fits the criteria for potential assists at little draft cost along with Utah’s Isaiah Collier, Milwaukee’s Kevin Porter, Clipper Chris Paul, Portland’s Scoot Henderson (this is the year!) and Toronto’s Immanuel Quickley.
San Antonio Spurs PG/SG Stephon Castle averages 18 PPG and 5.5 APG
Yeah, PG De’Aaron Fox is still here, and we’re not predicting bad things for him, but Castle should get ample opportunity to run the offense and set Fox up for more 3-point shots because his volume was way down last season. Castle isn’t much of an outside shooter, but he can run an offense and get to the foul line. His second season should be even better than his first.
Toronto Raptors C Jakob Poeltl averages his first double-double
Poeltl delivered career bests for Toronto last season with 14.5 PPG and 9.6 RPG, and we cannot help but notice that a player who typically hurts fantasy managers with his free throw shooting went from 55.1% to 67.4%. OK, so not exactly Mark Price (look him up) but certainly more palatable. Poeltl is annually a player to target in the sixth or seventh round. Hopefully, he can participate in 70 games.
Utah Jazz PF/SF Lauri Markkanen returns to top-50 fantasy performance
Markkanen is a draft day bargain in ESPN ADP, going outside the top 75 despite delivering huge numbers in his first two Utah campaigns. This isn’t a durable player, but few complained in 2022-23 when he averaged 25.6 PPG and 8.6 RPG. He hits 3-pointers and, before last season, field goals. He’s hardly too old to return to prior levels.
Washington Wizards SF Cam Whitmore scores the most fantasy points on the team
Keeping with this mini-theme, Whitmore never had a chance in Houston, but a big scorer lurks. How about 20 PPG? He might not do much else for fantasy managers with rebounding or passing, but we should have doubts about which Wizards even stick around for 82 games. This team is tanking again. SG/PG CJ McCollum and SF Khris Middleton will be on contenders eventually. Whitmore might produce like Brooklyn’s Cam Thomas statistically, except he isn’t even being drafted in fantasy. Just give him the ball.