It feels a bit like 2021-22 for the Golden State Warriors, doesn’t it? They made significant additions a roster that looked formidable down the stretch last season, but they’ve been largely dismissed as a championship contender: Six teams have better odds to come out of the Western Conference. The Warriors’ stars have heard people say that their championship window has closed, and they strongly disagree.
“We’re going to have to go out there and produce and get it done,” Jimmy Butler said at media day. “We know that. But we’re just so joyful. We’re so happy to be able to compete with one another and do what they set out to do, do what I want to do for the first time: win a championship. And I smile knowing that it’s a really great chance for us.”
In 2025-26, though, Stephen Curry will turn 38, not 34, and Draymond Green will turn 36, not 32. Butler, who gave the Warriors new life in February, is 36. Their biggest signing, Al Horford, is 39. The NBA season is grueling, and Golden State coach Steve Kerr himself is on record saying that younger players are more likely to be able to handle the style of play and the schedule. (The reigning champs had an average age of 25.1 years, weighted by regular-season minutes.) With Butler and Horford in the equation, the Warriors might actually have a more balanced, well-rounded team than they did when they won the title four years ago, but Father Time will be tougher to beat this time.
The State of Play
Last year: The Warriors won 12 of their first 15 games, but the start didn’t prove to be sustainable. De’Anthony Melton won the starting shooting guard spot early in the season and almost immediately tore his ACL. They were 14-10 when they traded Melton and some draft capital to Brooklyn for Dennis Schröder in mid-December, and they were 25-24 when, before a game in Utah, they agreed to trade Andrew Wiggins, Schröder, Kyle Anderson, Lindy Waters III and a protected 2025 first-round pick (which later became Kasparas Jakučionis) for Butler. From Butler’s debut onward, the Warriors went 23-8 with the league’s best defense and a plus-9.2 net rating, but their 48-34 record was not good enough to secure a top-six seed. They beat the Grizzlies the play-in, won an extraordinarily physical seven-game series against the second-seeded Houston Rockets and advanced to play the Timberwolves in the second round. Despite Curry straining his hamstring in the first half, they won the opener in Minnesota, too. Without their franchise player, though, they lost the next four games.
The offseason: Almost nothing Golden State did in the offseason was official until Oct. 1, as a long stalemate with restricted free agent forward Jonathan Kuminga put the team in a holding pattern. Kuminga’s agent, Aaron Turner, discussed the details of the negotiations on an episode of ESPN’s “The Hoop Collective” before the 23-year-old forward agreed to a two-year, $46.8 million deal with a team option. After that became official, the Warriors signed Horford for the taxpayer midlevel (two years, $11.7 million, player option) and signed Melton and Seth Curry to minimum deals. They also re-signed Gary Payton II for the minimum.
Las Vegas over/under: 45.5, per BetMGM
The Conversation
Warriors believer: If you spent more time this offseason thinking about Jonathan Kuminga’s contract negotiations than what Al Horford will do for the Warriors, you’re going to be shocked by how awesome this team is. The only bad thing about the Horford signing is that it didn’t happen years ago. They wouldn’t have won in 2022 without Otto Porter and Nemanja Bjelica, but even then they were sacrificing size to get enough spacing on the floor. Imagine how much simpler lineup construction would have been for the last couple of seasons if the team had a stretch big who was a plus defender. The collective intelligence of Golden State’s new starting lineup is off the charts, and Horford is the sort of guy who amplifies everyone around him without taking anything off the table. I’m psyched to watch every single game the Warriors play.
Warriors skeptic: You’re right about one thing: Horford could have helped the Warriors years ago. Doesn’t it scare you, though, that they’re betting so heavily on his body holding up now? His lateral quickness is impressive for someone his age, but it gets a bit worse every year. I assume Golden State will moderate his minutes and sit him for half of every back-to-back, like Boston did last season. This is smart! It also limits his regular-season impact. To me, this is a microcosm of a bigger issue: To compete for a championship, they need to avoid running their vets into the ground during the regular season, but they also need to enter the playoffs with a high seed. These goals are in direct conflict with each other.
Warriors believer: Are they? I’d argue that the best way to moderate your best players’ minutes is to absolutely dominate when they’re all on the floor. Look at OKC’s minutes distribution last season or the Warriors’ in 2017 and 2018 — that’s what happens when you can routinely sit your starters for the entire fourth quarter. Also, don’t forget that Golden State was an elite team before it signed Horford and De’Anthony Melton. If Horford doesn’t play back-to-backs, then it can just go back to the Draymond-at-5 look that has worked forever. I admit that the Warriors aren’t quite as deep as the Thunder or Clippers, but it’s not like they’re super top-heavy. Trayce Jackson-Davis and Quinten Post are still in the picture, and Steve Kerr has an abundance of rotation-caliber wings to choose from.
Warriors skeptic: The Clippers are an interesting point of comparison, actually, because they’re the only other team that has gone all-in on old dudes. That team is so deep that Chris Paul might get DNP-CDs, and I’d be much less worried about Horford if he were playing the same role as Brook Lopez this season. Anyway, the Warriors will probably look like the amazing team you’re envisioning at times. I don’t know how often it’ll happen, though. As awesome as Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green still are, having them all on the same team presents challenges. One is the simple question of availability, and the second is making the pieces fit around them. Horford helps, but if he’s resting, then Kuminga’s role immediately becomes more complicated, for example. Melton also helps, in theory, but he’s coming off ACL surgery and hasn’t even practiced yet.
Warriors believer: Again, you’re forgetting that, until Steph got hurt against Minnesota, the Warriors were already looking legit. I can’t wait to see Melton with this new version of the team — it was obvious early last season that he was a great fit — but I also can’t wait to see Brandin Podziemski take charges, Buddy Hield make 3s off movement, Gary Payton II harass opposing ballhandlers and Moses Moody reestablish himself as a reliable glue guy (after a thumb injury that limited him late last season). And if you’re so concerned about the vets’ availability, then you should be thrilled for the Warriors that they managed to keep Kuminga around on their terms. His athleticism and rim pressure will be useful off the bench and vital whenever Steph, Jimmy or Draymond is out.
Warriors skeptic: Sigh. Kuminga. Going into the offseason, I really thought we’d seen the last of him in a Warriors uniform. You can praise their front office for winning the negotiation, I guess, but they are once again in a weird place with him. Do they try to feature him on offense to raise his trade value? Do they continue to try to make him a more Warriors-y role player? Unless he shows immense improvement as a shooter and decision-maker, a mid-January trade seems like the best-case scenario, but I doubt the offers at that point will be much more appealing than the ones Golden State rejected recently. This is a real shame, since the roster isn’t quite good enough as-is and it doesn’t have many trade chips left.