In the first round of last year’s playoffs, the Minnesota Timberwolves pushed the Los Angeles Lakers around. The Lakers’ thin frontcourt rotation was exposed, as was their overall lack of depth. In Game 4, they played the same five-man unit for the entire second half. Their base defense didn’t hold up, and blitzing Anthony Edwards didn’t work, either. They got stuck in the mud on offense, particularly late in games. Looking back in late September, coach JJ Redick said they weren’t physically ready to play.
Can the Lakers avoid the same fate in 2025-26? Well, Luka Dončić seems to have addressed his much-discussed conditioning issues, and Redick plans to prep them for the postseason differently. Their rotation will be different, but not radically so: Deandre Ayton, Marcus Smart and Jake LaRavia have arrived, and Dorian Finney-Smith’s tenure ended just six months after it began. In Dončić, LeBron James and Austin Reaves, they have a ton of playmaking at their disposal, but they don’t have much of an identity beyond that. This time around, though, they have a full season to build something sturdier on that foundation.
The State of Play
Last year: The Lakers were 13-12 in mid-December, but had improved to 28-19 by the time that they pulled off perhaps the single greatest trade in NBA history. On the first day of February, they sent Anthony Davis, Max Christie, Jalen Hood-Schifino, a 2029 first-round pick and what turned out to be the No. 53 pick in the 2025 draft to Dallas for Dončić, Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris. Dončić was hurt at the time, and the Lakers ramped him up cautiously. Despite this, and despite James missing two weeks in March with a groin injury, they finished 50-32 and third in the Western Conference. They definitely did not look like the higher seed in their series against Minnesota, however.
The offseason: The Lakers didn’t offer James a contract extension, and, when he picked up his $52.6 million player option, Rich Paul released a statement to ESPN that made his future with the franchise seem uncertain. Dončić’s future with the franchise, though, became much more secure: As soon as he was allowed to sign an extension, he did — it’s a three-year max deal with a player option, meaning the earliest he could hit free agency is 2028. After Portland bought out the remainder of Ayton’s contract, the Lakers signed him to a two-year, $16.2 million deal (with a player option). After Washington bought out the remainder of Smart’s contract, the Lakers signed him to a two-year, $10.5 million deal (with a player option). And after Finney-Smith committed to sign with Houston, the Lakers picked up LaRavia on a two-year, $12 million deal. They also re-signed Jaxson Hayes for the minimum and, surprisingly, waived Jordan Goodwin (to facilitate the Smart signing).
Las Vegas over/under: 48.5 wins, per BetMGM
The Conversation
Lakers believer: Get ready for the coronation of Luka Dončić. He’s in championship shape, just like JJ Redick and the rest of the world wanted, and this is his time to win his first MVP award. Eight months later, I still can’t believe the Mavericks actually traded him, but it has clearly given the Lakers new life. Over the summer, LeBron shot a ton of catch-and-shoot 3s because he wanted to be ready for his first full season playing with Luka. It’s funny how, when you have two of the best playmakers of all-time on your roster, a starting-caliber center like Deandre Ayton can just fall out of the sky. Ayton knows this is the biggest opportunity of his career, so he’ll play with force on both ends. As long as the Lakers get decent bench production, they’ll be contenders.
Lakers skeptic: I can’t believe the Mavs traded Dončić, either! Bad news, though: The Lakers are still at least a couple of pieces away from contention. Losing Dorian Finney-Smith in free agency was a big blow, especially because this roster is short on reliable role players. Sure, I’ve seen Ayton, Marcus Smart, Gabe Vincent, Jarred Vanderbilt and Maxi Kleber be productive in the past, but recent history suggests it’s dangerous to count on them. LaRavia is a downgrade from DFS, Smart could turn out to be a downgrade from Goodwin and Ayton is obviously going to drive Redick crazy. There’s a reason that, when asked what Ayton would bring to LA, all former teammate Devin Booker said was, “I mean, I guess we’ll just have to see, you know? Yeah.”
Lakers believer: I mean, I guess we’ll see then! Ayton is saying all the right things, though, and Luka is going to make his job extremely simple. He’s not be the prototypical shot-blocking, hard-rolling big man Dončić thrived with in Dallas, but neither Dereck Lively II nor Daniel Gafford has Ayton’s touch from floater range. His contract is a bargain, and the Lakers got good value in free agency in general. LaRavia is exactly the type of connector that they needed on offense, and he’s almost a decade younger than Finney-Smith. Smart is an upside play: You accept the injury risk because otherwise there’s no way you could grab an elite defender who can make plays with the biannual exception. Speaking of injury risk, please apologize to Vincent! That man played in 72 games last season, made 37.2% of his catch-and-shoot 3s and competed defensively all year long.
Lakers skeptic: Am I supposed to apologize for remembering that the 2023-24 season happened? Moving on: I’m curious what you think would constitute a successful season for the Lakers. To me, it’s a bit tricky. James is always in win-now mode, obviously, and we’ve already seen Dončić take teams deep into the playoffs, so my initial instinct is to hold them to a high standard. When I really think about the roster, though, I’m not sure this team is meaningfully better than it was when it lost in five games to the Timberwolves in the first round a few months ago. Realistically, the Lakers should be happy if they can get solid production out of Ayton and if lineups featuring Dončić, James and Austin Reaves are a lot better than they were last year. Winning more than 50 games would be a nice bonus.
Lakers believer: You need to think bigger. If Luka could take the 2024 Mavs to the NBA Finals, why can’t he lead this team to at least the conference finals? The Thunder’s defense and depth put them in a tier of their own, but, especially after the Fred VanVleet injury, I don’t think the rest of the West is that scary. By the way, don’t pay read too much into the Lakers’ stats with the Luka-LeBron-Reaves trio on the court last season — they had horrible 3-point luck, and the sample was pretty small.
Lakers skeptic: I think you need to think bigger, in terms of what this season actually means for the Lakers. James will be 41 in December, and, regardless of whether or not this is his final year, the front office is already trying to position itself to find Dončić’s next co-star. This summer, that meant staying flexible; instead of trading future picks to maximize their chances of competing for a title in 2025-26, they signed three role players to two-year contracts and let Finney-Smith walk (because he wasn’t interested in their two-year offer). You’re severely underestimating the Nuggets and you’re shortchanging the Timberwolves, Warriors and Clippers, but I think the biggest mistake you’re making is overestimating how much this season really matters to the Lakers. They’d like to win every game they play, sure, but the bigger-picture goal is to build something new and sustainable around the 26-year-old face of the franchise. This is perfectly reasonable! It’s also the reason that they’re not nearly as deep as they’d need to be to compete for a title right now.