For the first time in his career, LeBron James will miss a season opener. The famously durable James is reportedly dealing with sciatica that should sideline him for at least 3-4 weeks. As new as a season-opening injury is to James, it’s something we might need to get used to. James is 40. There is very little precedent of players even staying active to this age, let alone performing at the star-caliber level that James still did last season. We may not have much truly, 100% healthy James basketball left.
That will be a problem that plays out for the Lakers over the course of the season. For now, they have more immediate concerns, like figuring out how to survive the beginning of the season without one of their superstars. So with James now sidelined for a bit, let’s look at some of the ripple effects of this injury for the rest of the Lakers.
1. Could this open the door for more Bronny?
Right off the bat, the Lakers just lost somewhere between 30 and 35 minutes per night at the beginning of the season with James sidelined. The guard they added this offseason, Marcus Smart, is currently dealing with Achilles tendinopathy, so there’s no telling how much he’ll be able to play as the season begins. To clear the room to bring him in, the Lakers needed to waive Jordan Goodwin, a rotation guard from last season. Not they could ever fully rely on him from a health perspective, but Maxi Kleber is also dealing with a quadriceps issue. In other words, there are seemingly minutes available early on.
The irony here is that one LeBron James getting hurt could open the door for another LeBron James to play. Bronny is obviously a good deal smaller than his father. They play different positions. But the Lakers are relatively fluid positionally. Their two primary ball-handlers after all are the elder James and Luka Dončić, who are both forward-sized. In the event that LeBron, Smart and Kleber are sidelined, there are eight players who would almost certainly play: Dončić, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, Gabe Vincent, Deandre Ayton, Jake LaRavia and Jaxson Hayes.
Most teams use nine or 10 in the regular season. Dalton Knecht is probably the major beneficiary, and it would behoove the Lakers to use him if only to boost his trade value. But don’t be surprised if the Lakers give Bronny a bit of run early on just to see if he can handle it. His rookie season was pretty uninspiring, but there were positive signs at Summer League. The Lakers aren’t built for Bronny to play real minutes when they’re healthy, but this is potentially a chance to see how much he’s grown early in the season and figure out if he deserves more chances later. Of course, without knowing how well he’s played at camp and how available Smart will be, none of this is guaranteed. For all we know, one of the two-way guards, Nick Smith Jr. or Chris Manon, could have impressed enough to garner those early opportunities.
2. Who’s starting in LeBron’s place?
We came into camp reasonably certain that four Lakers would start: James, Dončić, Reaves and Ayton. The competition has seemingly been between Smart and Hachimura, but Jarred Vanderbilt has a fringe case as well. While Smart is the more decorated defender, he’s better-suited guarding bigger players at this stage of his career. That’s less of a need for this Lakers roster, whereas Vanderbilt is better at defending guards. He’s a worse offensive player, but, well, the Lakers can probably afford to spare some scoring.
If Smart is healthy enough to start on opening day, the organic solution here might be to just start both he and Hachimura. Then, when James comes back, the Lakers could use the information from their first batch of games to make an informed, long-term decision. However, if they’re worried about Smart defending fast guards, it might make sense to give Vanderbilt a longer look now. Hachimura’s shooting is probably a must for the offense with no James, so this could be a matter of stylistic preference on defense. Plus, if the Lakers were leaning towards bringing Smart off of the bench, maintaining role continuity for an older player would probably be helpful.
3. Grab Luka’s MVP odds
You’ve all heard the hype by now. Luka Dončić is in the best shape of his life. He’s ready to prove the Mavericks wrong for trading him. All of that was true before James went down, but what changes is his immediate statistical upside. The Lakers have as much ball-handling as any team in the NBA. Even if Dončić has the best season of his career, it may not show up statistically because he’ll probably have the ball less playing next to James and Reaves than he did in Dallas. If you were looking for a reason to doubt his MVP candidacy, that was it.
Yes, James should return reasonably early in the season, but narratives form quickly. If Dončić bursts out of the gate posting 30-point triple-doubles carrying an undermanned Lakers team, that’s going to draw quite a bit of attention. Even if he doesn’t maintain that volume after James returns, narratives matter in MVP races. He now has a chance to grab an early lead with the whole league watching. Dončić has longer MVP odds than either of the past two winners, Nikola Jokić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The best price on the board, as of Thursday evening, was +400 at Bet365. Whether or not those odds are fair is debatable, but I’d say Dončić is slightly likelier to mount a winning MVP case today than he was yesterday.
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