With the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder tied 2-2 heading into Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals on Monday, you would think the odds of winning this series, and by extension the Finals MVP odds, would reflect a relatively balanced market.
That’s not even close to the case. With home-court advantage back in their favor, the Thunder are a -500 favorite to win two of the next three while Indiana is a +375 underdog, per Caesars. That is obviously driving the Finals MVP market as well, which is weighted heavily toward Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Before we get into my Finals MVP rankings as I see them through four games in this series, couple notes to keep in mind.
- Only one time in history has a player from the losing team won Finals MVP: Jerry West in 1969, when the Lakers lost to the Celtics in seven games despite West’s 38 points, seven assists and four rebounds per game. Which is to say, barring something happening that has only happened once in the last 55 NBA Finals (which can’t be ruled out, I suppose, given the statistically absurd nature of these playoffs in general and specifically the Pacers’ run), a player from the winning team is going to win Finals MVP.
- Not only has the Finals MVP come from the winning team all but one time, but it’s also usually the leading scorer in that particular series that claims the hardware. Only 12 times has the Finals MVP been awarded to a player who did not lead his team in scoring in that series.
With all this in mind, let’s get to the Finals MVP rankings. At this point, I see only three realistic candidates. Here’s how they stand after the first four games of the NBA Finals.
- Current odds (via Caesars Sportsbook): -490
SGA is back in the driver’s seat to win Finals MVP after delivering a heroic performance down the stretch of Oklahoma City’s comeback win in Game 4. A few SGA notes for the record book:
- Most points (15) in the final five minutes of a Finals game on record.
- Most clutch points (14) in a Finals game on record.
- Second player in the last 20 years with 15-plus points on 100/100/100 shooting splits (3-3 FG, 1-1 3-pt FG, 8-8 FT) in the final five minutes of a playoff game.
SGA’s stats through the first four games os this series are legendary at better than 32 points, five rebounds and three assists per game. He’s been a defensive chaos contributor with 10 total steals so far, though his individual defense hasn’t been great. Jalen Williams has been good and both he and Alex Caruso were incredible in Game 4, but this is simple: If the Thunder win, there is no chance anyone other than SGA is walking away with Finals MVP.
Gilgeous-Alexander may be the book favorite, but it’s dealer’s choice who represents the best value bet between Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, who iss Indiana’s leading scorer in the series. I’m going with Haliburton. To get the best player on a team that is tied 2-2 at 8.5-to-1 odds to win Finals MVP is crazy value.
Through four games, Haliburton’s series stats don’t jump off the page at 17.8 points and 7.5 assists. But he isn’t the type of player you judge by traditional box scores. Over 109 Haliburton minutes this series, the Pacers have outscored OKC by eight points. Even when he wasn’t playing all that well through the first two games, Indiana was still winning his minutes. That’s a credit to his across-the-board impact.
In fact, Haliburton became one of just two players in history to average at least seven assists, seven rebounds and three made 3-pointers through the first three games of an NBA Finals. The other? Stephen Curry in 2017. Not bad company.
Haliburton has the signature series moment so far with his game-winning shot in Game 1. That matters in what would be a tight call between him and Siakam, if the Pacers were to win, at this moment. Even more than what Haliburton has done to this point, this ranking reflects the unlikelihood of Indiana winning this series without his being the driving force. Indeed, the Pacers are 8-1 in these playoffs when Haliburton scores at least 20 points. He’ll probably have to do that a couple times to finish this thing off.
3. Pascal Siakam, Pacers
If you have Siakam ahead of Haliburton right now, you won’t get a passionate argument from me. See the table above for the clear historic link between being the winning team’s leading series scorer and winning Finals MVP, and Siakam is Indiana’s leading scorer right now at 18.8 PPG.
Siakam was sensational with 20 points, eight rebounds, five steals and five assists in Game 4. Save for a rough shooting night in Game 2, he’s been outstanding in this series as Indiana’s go-to one-on-one scorer. He’s been able to get to a variety of shots by backing defenders down, and he’s getting to the free-throw line over seven times a game.
Over the last two games, Indiana has won Siakam’s minutes by 15 points. That’s significant. He’s minus-10 for the series, but he’s trending up. He’s been vital to a suddenly suffocating Indiana defense, at least in stretches.
Personally, I think Haliburton’s game-winner gives him an edge over Siakam right now, and again, I think if the Pacers are going to pull this series out, Haliburton is a better bet to take center stage. But it’s close. If you like Siakam over Hali, go for it. But one way or the other, they are both better value bets than SGA.
2025 NBA Finals MVP odds
(Odds via Caesars as of June 16)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -490
- Pascal Siakam: +650
- Tyrese Haliburton: +800
- Jalen Williams: +3500
Watch all your favorite Amazon Prime Video Sports broadcasts live and free. Get access to NFL, NBA, NASCAR, WNBA, and more – all included with your Prime membership!