Before Fred VanVleet tore his ACL in September, the big storyline was straightforward: The Houston Rockets are going for it. In the offseason, they traded for Kevin Durant, addressing their biggest weakness (halfcourt scoring) in the simplest, splashiest way possible. With the addition of Dorian Finney-Smith and some improvement from burgeoning stars Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun, they had a shot to compete for a championship.
Is that still the case without VanVleet? Maybe not. The Rockets were significantly worse on both ends when he was off the court last season, and this year’s roster has much more depth in the frontcourt than the backcourt. There is still tons of talent here, though, with a fair amount of versatility and overwhelming size and length. “Sometimes it’s going to be doubling down on bully ball,” coach Ime Udoka said on media day. “If Amen [is] out there with two bigs and Jabari [Smith Jr.] and KD on the court, we’re probably one of the biggest teams in the history of the league.” They’re going to start that humongous lineup in the opener on Tuesday night in OKC.
Thompson has a lot on his shoulders. Second-year guard Reed Sheppard, too. Time to see how much they can handle.
The State of Play
Last year: The Rockets went 52-30, with a top-five defense and a slightly above-average offense. Sengun made his first All-Star Game and Udoka took the league by surprise by playing him next to Steven Adams in the second half of the season. In 162 minutes spread over 22 regular-season games, the jumbo Rockets crushed everything in sight, rebounding more than half of their own misses and more than 80% of their opponents’. They won those double-big minutes by 29.9 points per 100 possessions, but, while the look remained effective in their seven-game series against the Warriors, they ultimately couldn’t score enough to advance.
The offseason: To get Durant, the Rockets sent Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, the No. 10 pick in the 2025 draft and five second-round picks to Phoenix. Months later, they signed Durant to a two-year, $90 million extension with a player option in 2027-28. They also signed Smith to an extension (five years, $122 million) and brought back Adams (three years, $39 million), VanVleet (two years, $50 million, player option), Aaron Holiday (one year, minimum), Jae’Sean Tate (one year, minimum) and Jeff Green (one year, minimum). In free agency, they added Finney-Smith (4 years, $52.7 million, player option), Clint Capela (3 years, $21.1 million) and Josh Okogie (one year, minimum). Cam Whitmore went to Washington in a trade (for two second-round picks and the rights to Mojave King), Jock Landale signed with Memphis (after Houston waived him) and Jack McVeigh signed with the Cairns Taipans of the NBL.
Las Vegas over/under: 52.5 wins, per FanDuel Sportsbook
The conversation
Rockets believer: Hello, Year 3 Amen Thompson:
I am so ready for this. He is so ready for this. Did you notice he made 11 of his 12 free throws in the preseason? Thompson should have won Defensive Player of the Year last year, and he’s about to be a star on the offensive side, too. If you weren’t all-in on the Rockets after what Alperen Sengun did in Eurobasket, you should be now. I hate that Fred VanVleet is out for the year, but this is absolutely still a championship contender.
Rockets skeptic: I have to be all-in because Thompson cooked … Jordan Poole? In a preseason game? I don’t know, man. I’ve noticed the hype machine going into overdrive with Thompson and I’m not super comfortable with it. He makes a lot more sense to me as a secondary playmaker than as the guy who’s going to have the ball in his hands at the beginning of every possession. If Houston is going to overcome this devastating VanVleet injury, it either needs Reed Sheppard to grow up fast or it needs to make a midseason trade. (Evan Mobley was the rightful DPOY winner, by the way.)
Rockets believer: Hogwash! If the Rockets make a trade at some point, it’ll be to bolster what is already a special team, not to plug a hole at point guard. Thompson can do this, and I’m fully confident in Sheppard, too. The only question is whether or not Ime Udoka is going to start them together. I love the fit long-term, but I’d understand keeping Thompson at the 1, trying to make the starters the best defensive unit in the league and letting Sheppard make a run at the Sixth Man of the Year award.
Rockets skeptic: I have no idea if Sheppard is ready to start for a good team — he barely played as a rookie! — but I know I don’t like the enormous lineup that Udoka started against the Pelicans in the preseason and is going to start again on opening night. Kevin Durant is 37, and you want him playing at the 2? You want Jabari Smith Jr. at the 3? I was surprised that Sengun and Steven Adams worked so well together last season, but, if you keep trying to get bigger, there are going to be diminishing returns.
Rockets believer: Uh, why? Think outside the box! The Rockets are going to demolish teams on the boards again, and it’s not like they’re going to be short on shooting. Durant is here. Dorian Finney-Smith is here. Sheppard is actually going to play. Smith is back. Tari Eason is a decent enough shooter, too, and Sengun is going to take (and make) more 3s this season. I love that this team is big, and I love that the front office saw an opportunity to grab another big (Clint Capela) and took advantage of it. This way, even if there’s an injury to one of the bigs, Houston can still play bully ball.
Rockets skeptic: Would you rather have Capela on this team than, say, Ty Jerome? What about Tyus Jones or De’Anthony Melton? It feels like Houston was trying to make sure Sheppard would get a chance to play, but this backfired when VanVleet got hurt. Now it’s left with an imbalanced roster and a shortage of playmaking. I’m sorry, but I’m definitely concerned about the shooting if Thompson, Sengun and Adams are going to continue to play together, and I’m concerned that opposing teams are going to try to run the super-sized lineups to death. This should still be a playoff team, but, without VanVleet, that’s as far as I’m willing to go.