The reigning Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers can take a commanding 3-1 leading in the Stanley Cup Final when they host the Edmonton Oilers in Game 4 on Thursday night at Amerant Bank Arena in South Florida. After blowing a lead to lose Game 1, the Panthers have rebounded to win the last two. They are coming off a 6-1 blowout victory in Game 3.
Top-line Edmonton forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will once again be a game-time-decision while dealing with an undisclosed injury. After scoring 18 points over the first 15 playoff games, he has now played four straight games without a point.
For Game 4, the Panthers are -149 favorites at BetMGM Sportsbook while the Oilers are +125 underdogs.
Let’s start our snapshot of what to watch and bet tonight on the ice.
Stanley Cup Game 4 best bets Thursday
Oilers at Panthers, 8 p.m. ET (TNT)
Though each of the first three games of the Final has gone Over 6.5 goals, with 23 combined goals (the most through three games of a Cup Final since 1982), the model believes the teams regress to the mean on Thursday. The model’s 10,000 simulations say the teams average 5.7 goals in Game 4. Both the model and Cohen like Edmonton to play well on Thursday. Cohen believes the Oilers will play with desperation. “Look for the Oilers to jump out early and hold on late,” he says. Meanwhile Erskine notes that Schmidt has five assists in the series after just 14 assists across 80 games during the regular season. “Schmidt has been one of the biggest surprises of the playoffs,” Erskine says.
MLB best bets, games to watch Thursday
Yankees at Royals, 7:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network)
- SportsLine model pick: Royals +1.5 (-131)
- SportsLine model player prop pick: Will Warren Over 4.5 strikeouts (-138)
- SportsLine expert pick: Royals +1.5 (-126) (Matt Severance, 153-79 in his last 232 MLB picks)
Both the model and Severance like Kansas City to cover on the run line. Royals starter Seth Lugo has been much better at home (3.10 ERA) than on the road (4.07) this season and has had success against the Yankees’ Aaron Judge over his career (1-for-14 with five strikeouts). The model gives Kansas City a 64.0% chance to cover. In addition, the model rates Warren Over 4.5 strikeouts as a 4.5-star play on its 5-star scale. Warren has gone Over this number in 10 of his 13 starts this season and eight of his last nine.
Cardinals at Brewers, 7:40 p.m. ET
- SportsLine model pick: Brewers money line (+120, FanDuel)
- SportsLine model player prop pick: Alec Burleson Over 0.5 total bases (-167, BetMGM)
The model sees moderate value in playing Milwaukee on the money line against St. Louis, which has lost four straight games. During the losing streak, the Cardinals have been hit hard, allowing 27 runs. Meanwhile the Brewers have called up the franchise’s top pitching prospect, Jacob Misiorowski, to make his MLB debut on Thursday. A 6-foot-7 righty, Misiorowski went 4-2 with a 2.13 ERA in 13 games at Triple-A Nashville, striking out 80 in 63 1/3 innings. The model notes that Burleson has gone Over his total bases line in all nine games in which St. Louis is favored and plays a team with a winning record.
More MLB best bets
MLS best bets, games to watch Thursday
Atlanta United at New York City FC, 7:30 p.m. ET (MLS Season Pass)
Eimer sees a high-scoring matchup between Atlanta and NYCFC. Atlanta have conceded 30 goals this season; just three clubs have allowed more. Also, Both Teams To Score: Yes has hit in five of the Atlanta’s last seven matches. Meanwhile Over 2.5 goals has hit in each of NYCFC’s last three matches.
Looking ahead
NBA Finals Game 4: Thunder at Pacers (8:30 p.m. ET Friday)
The NBA Finals resume on Friday night at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis with the Pacers leading the series, 2-1. Indiana is coming off a 116-107 victory in Game 3. For the second time in this series the total stayed Under 225.5, and the model says there’s a 56.3% chance of the teams staying Under the total again. Meanwhile Selesnick believes there has been an overreaction to Williams’ big Game 3 (35 combined points, rebounds and assists) and notes that the Thunder forward has gone Under 33.5 PRA in 12 of 19 playoff games this season. “Williams has struggled with consistency and this has proven to be a tall order for the talented combo forward,” Selesnick says.
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