A 3-2 lead in the NBA Finals will be on the line on Monday when the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers square off in a crucial Game 5 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The teams enter Monday with the series tied at two games apiece. The Pacers won Games 1 and 3, while the Thunder took Games 2 and 4.
In the 31 previous instances that an NBA Finals has been tied at two games apiece, the winner of Game 5 has gone on to win the series 23 times. After opening as a 9-point favorite for Game 5, Oklahoma City has moved to 9.5, per DraftKings Sportsbook. We’ll share our best bets from that game and the entire Monday sports slate below.
Let’s start our snapshot of what to watch and bet on tonight on the hardwood.
NBA Finals Game 5, Pacers at Thunder (8:30 p.m. ET)
The NBA Finals shift to the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, where the Thunder are 44-8 this season (including the playoffs), the best record in the league. The last time the teams played at Paycom, Oklahoma City blew out Indiana, 123-107, in a game the Thunder led by as many as 23 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the betting favorite to win the NBA Finals MVP award after scoring at least 34 points in three of the four games in the series. “It’s about time we see the Thunder defense step up in a big way, and I would be mildly surprised if that wasn’t the case on Monday night,” Cohen says. Meanwhile, Selesnick believes Monday is the time to fade Caruso, who is averaging just 8.3 shots per game in the series. “Considering the shooting volume, Caruso will have to continue to be red hot to eclipse this line,” he says.
MLB best bets, games to watch on Monday
Angels at Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network)
- SportsLine model pick: Yankees money line -203
- SportsLine expert pick: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 total runs -115 (Jason La Canfora, 5-1 in his last six MLB game prop picks)
These two teams enter the first game of a four-game series reeling. The Bronx Bombers are coming off being swept in a three-game series by the rival Red Sox. Meanwhile, the Halos are licking their wounds after being swept by the Orioles. New York starter Clarke Schmidt (3-3, 3.60 ERA) has a 2.90 ERA in his last five starts. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, says the Yankees win 71.0% of the time, which is substantially different from the consensus odds implied probability of 65.5%. In addition, La Canfora notes that a total of three runs or fewer have been scored in the first five innings in five of Angels starter José Soriano’s last eight road starts.
Padres at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network)
Japanese star Shohei Ohtani makes his first appearance on the mound in 663 days when he starts for the Dodgers against the Padres at Dodger Stadium. The two-way star hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since Aug. 23, 2023, after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Since then he signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers and helped them win last year’s World Series as a designated hitter. The model expects Ohtani to have a big game on the mound. Despite the right-hander being on a pitch count, the model projects 6.6 strikeouts, which would soar over the total of 1.5. This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop of the day. However, the model likes the money line price on San Diego, giving the Padres a 43.0% chance to win.
More MLB best bets
Looking ahead
Stanley Cup Final Game 6: Oilers at Panthers (8 p.m. Tuesday)
The Florida Panthers can become just the third franchise this century to win back-to-back Stanley Cup titles when they host the Edmonton Oilers in Game 6 at Amerant Bank Arena in South Florida. The Panthers lead the series, 3-2, after a 5-2 win in Game 5 on Saturday. However, the SportsLine Projection Model is once again backing a desperate Oilers team. The model backed underdog Edmonton in Game 4, and the Oilers responded with a 5-4 victory. The model’s projections give Edmonton a 49.0% chance to win Game 5, which is substantially different from the consensus odds’ implied probability of 44.8%. In addition, the model notes that Barkov has gone Over his total shots on goal line four times in the last five games, averaging 2.4 total shots on goal per game.
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