“Situational Analysis” is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), fatal flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
Noa Essengue is an 18-year-old forward from Orléans, France, who averaged 12.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.4 steals in 23.7 minutes per game for Ratiopharm Ulm in Basketball Bundesliga in Germany (you can find a variety of statlines on Essengue, but we’ll go with Basketball Reference). He is expected to be a top 20 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. NBADraft.net currently has him projected to go No. 11.
NBA-Specific Skills
Every year, there is always at least one mysterious international prospect who rockets up draft boards with crazy combine measurables, insane highlights, iffy box scores, and worlds of potential.
Noa Essengue has entered the chat.
Essengue – like many of the limitless upside prospects before him – is from France. Much like Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly, Tidjane Salaun, Rayan Rupert before him (Victor Wembanyama obviously belongs in a different category), Essengue bulldozed his way into the first round – and potentially the lottery – thanks to a seemingly impossible combination of size, youth, length, athleticism, and fluidity.
Essengue seemed like he was still about a year or two away from serious draft consideration, but a timely growth spurt put him at 6-10 with a 9-2 standing reach and Kawhi Leonard-esque hands. The scary part? He’s still growing.
He runs the floor like a guard and covers almost endless amounts of the court in one or two strides. Players with his build should not be able to move, run, or jump like this.
He isn’t just a tape-measure wonder, either. Essengue looks like a player. He has incredible body control for someone still in the middle of a growth spurt. He can corral the ball with either hand and finish without having to slow down. His motor runs hot, and he never tries to do anything he can’t do. Essengue is a team-first player with a knack for making timely contributions. He has a terrific nose for the ball as a rebounder – particularly on the offensive glass.
Defensively, the sky is the limit. Essengue has the length and speed to comfortably switch between all five positions. His most translatable NBA skill right now is turnover creation – he obliterates passing lanes that seem wide open until he extends one of his arms.
If Essengue continues this development track, he has the potential to be one of this draft’s most talented prospects by the end of his rookie contract.
On a scale from 1-10, Essengue’s upside is a 9.5.
Fatal Flaws
Can Essengue, you know, actually play basketball?
For every flash of brilliance, Essengue has just as many flat-footed moments of confusion, dribbles off the foot, or jumpers that barely draw iron. It takes him a long time to load up his jumper, and it still only goes in once every three or four times, even when he is wide open. He’s made strides in this area, but the jumper is still very much theoretical at this stage.
As for ball handling, he is much better off taking one or two dribbles and getting rid of it as opposed to trying to break down a defense. The dribble is high, loose, and still a little stiff. Essengue is much more comfortable finishing a play than he is creating one. Passing vision is limited, as is his ability to diagnose and dissect a complex defensive scheme.
Strength/bulk will likely come with age, as he is still outgrowing his body’s ability to maintain muscle mass. He has a high center of gravity and can lose his balance if he gets caught out of his stance.
The upside? Tremendous. The floor? Nerve-wracking. He isn’t quite in the Bruno Caboclo realm (Fran Fraschilla’s immortal scouting report: “Two years away from being two years away”), but Essengue is very much a work in progress.
On a scale from 1 (not a concern) to 10 (serious hindrance), Essengue’s currently-under-development skillset is a 9.
Pre-NBA Setting
Essengue finds himself in the right place at the right time.
Basketball prospect development in France has never been better. Thanks to the foundation built by Tony Parker, Nicolas Batum, Boris Diaw, and Rudy Gobert, France has created a rock-solid infrastructure for top-end talent to develop into NBA-level talents.
After standing out in Orléans, Essengue found his way to Germany in 2023, signing with Ratiopharm Ulm and posting strong showings for its developmental squad, OrangeAcademy.
Unlike many of these “international prospects of mystery,” Essengue has turned in strong performance against high levels of competition. His game tape shows a player with a clear role and pathway toward a productive NBA career.
On a scale from 1-10, Essengue’s pre-NBA career is an 8. He clearly isn’t Luka or Wemby (a teenager winning MVPs against other adults), but Essengue isn’t a total question mark, either. There is something here.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
Masai Ujiri is drafting Essengue. It seems almost too obvious.
Most general managers have preferences in what they value in a draft prospect. When a GM has done the job for this long, those preferences become clear to even the most casual observer.
I’d be shocked if Ujiri isn’t already obsessed with Essengue. A freakishly long athlete with unlimited upside who might never learn to shoot, pass, or dribble? It’s almost as if Ujiri created Essengue in a laboratory. If he is still on the board and Ujiri passes on him, beware.
If Essengue’s floor is the No. 9 pick, is it possible he could go higher? Yes. I think Essengue could go anywhere between Nos. 4-8, given the fact that all those teams are years away from serious postseason basketball and they all need to take swings on any prospect who could possibly exceed expectations.
Of these teams, the Wizards seem to be the best fit. They already have a French contingent in Sarr and Coulibaly, and they all need the same kinds of skill development. Washington GM Will Dawkins seems to have a plan in place and a prospect preference that would lean toward Essengue.
On a scale from 1-10, Essengue’s situational dependence is a 10. He could bust out quickly if a team saddles him with unrealistic expectations and/or pins him to the bench and destroys his confidence. With the right culture and the correct coaching, Essengue is a strong contender to out-perform his draft slot.
